Lightweight Division (155lbs)
Jeremy Stephens vs Melvin Guillard
This fight was being billed as an instant FOTN nominee, as both of these guys are young, explosive athletes who like to let their hands go. Right off the bat, Stephens dropped Guillard with a huge counter right that left Melvin noticeably shaken up. Following this, Melvin appeared to be lighter on his toes, bouncing around and moving side to side, while Stephens stalked his opponent with a more flat footed approach. Melvin then began controlling the distance with his jab, and moving in and out while landing quick 1-2 combinations. It was soon clear that Stephens gameplan was to counter, but my god was it ineffective. Every time Melvin came in, he would land a quick jab, follow up right hand, and back out, leaving Stephens to counter and hit nothing but air with his left hook. Stephens became noticeably frustrated, having no luck finding his range or timing. In between rounds 2 and 3 we hear Melvin tell his corner that he has Stephens timing down, and they tell him to stay cautious. Stephens finally came out in the 3rd round pressing the action, fighting more aggressively with kicks and punches rather than simply attempting counters. Melvin fought much more conservatively, landing only one shot at a time, constantly moving, constantly frustrating Stephens. Although it wasn't the most exciting fight in the world, I had Melvin winning all the rounds. The final judges tally, 29-28 for Stephens, 29-28 for Guillard, and the last judge scored it 30-27 for the winner by split decision, Melvin Guillard.
Melvin has been in this situation many times before. He strings together a series of impressive wins, earns himself a fight on the big stage, and loses. It happened against Josh Neer, Joe Stevenson, and then Nate Diaz. But, Melvin appears to be a much more disciplined fighter now, training with Greg Jackson (coaches WW champion Georges St Pierre and formed LHW champion Rashad Evans, also Keith Jardine and Nate Marquardt.) Jackson is known for always employing a strategy or game plan for his fighters. In many cases this ends up resulting in a boring fight, where the fighter is simply fighting not to lose rather than to finish. Either way, Melvin showed patience and precision on his feet that we haven't seen from him before. Interesting matchups for Melvin could include a rematch with Joe Stevenson or a potential slugfest with either Ross Pearson or Takanori Gomi. As for Stephens, its back to the drawing board, as he has almost solidified himself as a gatekeeper in the division.
Lightweight Division (155lbs)
Sean Sherk vs Evan Dunham
This was the first bout of the night where experience figured to play an important role in the fight. Sherk is 37, with 38 MMA fights to his name and only 4 defeats. Dunham on the other hand is 28 with only 3 years of MMA experience, and an 11-0 record. This fight would determine if Sherk still had enough left in the tank to compete, or if Dunham was the new breed of up and coming lightweight stars. Dunham, holding a sizeable reach advantage over his opponent, looked light on his feet early. Sherk attempted several takedowns during the fight, and seemed to always end up caught in a guillotine choke (almost like a headlock), and just barely squeeze out. At one point in the first round Mike Goldberg even began his popular "It's ALLLLL over" saying, thinking Sherk had been choked out. Sherk was able to land substantial ground and pound in the first round and opened a large cut over Dunham's eye with a big elbow towards the end of the round. Sherk continued to look for the takedown only to end up in guillotines. With about a minute remaining in the 2nd round, Dunham, covered in blood from the cut over his eye, unloaded a series of kicks, knees, punches, and just about the whole kitchen sink. Sherk somehow was still standing at the end of the second round, showing a strong chin, while Dunham showed tremendous heart. By the third round, Dunham was stuffing Sherk's takedowns and finding a home for his lead left-straight right hand combo. Dunham put his hands and feet and knees together very well, punishing Sherk to end the fight. This was a tough one to judge. I gave the first round to Sherk, third round to Dunham, with the 2nd round being a tossup. Judges awarded the split decision victory to Sean Sherk.
Although Sherk was victorious, he doesn't seem to have enough left in him for another title run. This is a guy who prides himself on his rigorous cardio workout and his dominant wrestling style. In the first round he looked like the same Sean Sherk we've seen before, but through rounds 2 and 3, he looked exhausted and beaten up. At the end of this fight he looked ready to collapse. Sean put up a good fight against Dunham, but guys like Penn, Maynard and Edgar would pick him apart. As for Dunham, this kid impressed the hell out of me. Very active throughout the whole fight, attempting submissions, letting his hands/feet/knees go. This is the type of fighter the UFC wants, someone who will push the pace from bell to bell. Look for Dunham to rebound with a fight against Clay Guida or Gleison Tibau. Expect big things from Evan Dunham in the future.
Welterweight Division (170lbs)
Matt Serra vs Chris Lytle
So if you happened to read my predictions that I posted before this event, this fight went almost the complete opposite way. A rematch of The Ultimate Fighter Season 4 Finale, in which Matt Serra won a close decision, I predicted Serra would take a more definitive decision this time around, capitalizing on counter punches. Lytle held a 5" height advantage over Serra. Realizing this mismatch, Serra came out in a low stance and immediately began attacking Lytle's midsection with winging punches. Lytle would retreat and counter. Serra continued to push forward, attacking the body then swinging for the head of Lytle to end the exchange. Unfortunately for Serra, Lytle was finding a home for his counter right hand, and soon enough Serra's left eye was a bloody mess and swelling fast. Lytle, noticing Serra dropping his head to throw body punches, began connecting with BIG counter uppercuts. Serra was now getting hit with hard right counters to the eye and big uppercuts to the chin. Yet, the resilient Long Islander continued to move forward, only to have his head nearly taken off yet again by Lytle. Going into the final round, Serra became more desperate, throwing huge right hooks attempting to put Lytle to sleep. Lytle fought cautious, continuing to land counter right hands. You could see blood coming out of both eyes of Serra, reminiscent of Sam Neill in Event Horizon. Judges award Chris Lytle with a unanimous decision victory.
It's about that time for Matt Serra to hang em up. He had his time in the spotlight after upsetting GSP for the title. Since then he has lost a long anticipated grudge match to Matt Hughes, finished an old Frank Trigg, and lost to Chris Lytle. Time to become a full time trainer and hang the gloves up. As for Lytle, he has now strung together 4 straight wins. The 36 year old fan favorite Indianapolis Fire Fighter may have one last title run in him. I would really like to see him in there with the winner or loser of Carlos Condit vs Dan Hardy. Would definitely make for a great fight.
Light Heavyweight Division (205lbs)
Ryan Bader vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Bader comes into this fight on the wings of a big knockout over formerly highly touted LHW Keith Jardine, who was subsequently cut from the UFC following 4 straight defeats. Rogerio, brother of former UFC HW Champion Rodrigo Nogueira, came into the UFC with an emphatic knockout win over prospect Luis Cane, only to look anything but impressive in his next bout against the relatively unknown Jason Brilz. The winner of this bout was said to be next in line for light heavyweight wunderkind Jon Jones. Bader, an All American wrestler at Arizona State, set the pace early, applying pressure before securing a big takedown. Nogueira was able to then use slick jiu jitsu to control Bader in his guard and eventually return to his feet. The fight continued with both fighters briefly exchanging punches, then Bader attempting a takedown. In most cases Nog would shrug off the initial attempt, but the persistence of Bader usually resulted in Rogerio on his back. From here, Bader would land limited ground and pound before Nog got back to his feet. By the third round, Bader had much more trouble securing takedowns, and Nog began to pepper him with left hands and knees. Bader eventually secured a takedown and hammer fisted the Brazilian fighter til the final bell. Another lackluster affair, Bader being awarded a unanimous 30-27 decision victory by the judges.
Lil Nog actually looked pretty impressive in this fight. Looked light on his feet, put his hands together well, the only problem was stopping the powerful takedowns of Bader. This division is still very deep though and there are plenty of exciting fights for Lil Nog out there, including a bout with Forrest Griffin which had been scheduled before but called off due to injury. As I mentioned, Bader will most likely be next in line for Jon Bones Jones, should be a good one.
Main Event
Heavyweight Division (265lb maximum)
Frank Mir vs Mirko "CroCop' Filipovic
So up to this point in the evening, we had 4 main card bouts, and all 4 had gone to decision. That meant we were in store for a great main event, right? I mean, sitting through 4 decisions, we had to be awarded with a slugfest in the final bout...right? Coming in, Mir weighed 25lbs more than CroCop (252 to 227), and had a 6" reach advantage over the Croatian. Mir looked very confident in his hands, having no problem going toe to toe with the former K-1 Kickboxing star. Unfortunately, most exchanges ended with Mir pressing Cro Cop up against the cage and just grinding him down. Literally just leaning into Mirko and pushing him into the cage with all his weight in an attempt to tire down Cro Cop's arms and legs. It must have worked because we saw Cro Cop throw maybe 3 or 4 kicks this whole fight. Now don't forget people, Cro Cop made his name by kicking people's heads off. Literally. He finished eight different people with either a kick to the head or to the body. They say getting hit by his left leg kick is like being hit full force with a baseball bat. Ouch. But, when you are unwilling to use your most effective weapon, the odds of you winning are going to be slim. Both fighters looked very timid all around on their feet, throwing brief combinations, but not really landing anything substantial. Mir continues to grind CroCop into the fence. With just :30 seconds left in the match, when it looks like we're on our way to a 5th decision, Mir clasps the back of Cro Cop's neck and lands a huge knee to the chin of the Croatian, putting him down and out. Two follow up shots land before Herb Dean calls an end to the bout.
Cro Cop should hang em up. There is no way he still has the killer instinct which made him so popular in pride. He looked extremely timid, and at 227lbs there's no way he can hang with guys like Lesnar, Carwin, Velazquez, Dos Santos, etc. He had a legendary career, but it has come to an end. As for Mir, I don't really know. His stand up does look markedly improved, but I still don't think he can hang with guys like Dos Santos or Carwin on the feet. The only fights I see for Frank now are the rematch with Big Nog which was the original main event for this card, or Mir vs Big Country Roy Nelson. Any other match up would be unfavorable for Mir.
So that's it everybody. Hope the read wasn't too boring and you actually learned a thing or two about this sport which I so deeply love. All in all, it was a pretty lackluster card. There is an upcoming WEC event on Versus September 30. I will post my predictions for that event during the week. And for the record, this card looks unbelievable considering its free on Versus. Thanks for your time and enjoy some Sunday football.
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