We have a very exciting couple of days ahead of us in the world of mixed martial arts, with a couple of championship belts on the line as well as a few potential Fight of the Year bouts taking place. Enough intro, let's get underway.
The first event to feast your eyes on is Bellator 33, which airs tonight (Thurs Oct. 21) on CSN at 8pm. Yes ladies and gents, it's a free card, so be sure to tune in. I have given some background on promotions like UFC, WEC and Strikeforce, but Bellator is a little different. The promotion is still very young, having started over the past few years. In an attempt to differentiate themselves from the competition, Bellator employs a different style to their fights. Bellator utilizes the tournament format, something which has been loved by fans, but hasn't really been seen since the Grand Prix days of Pride.
In season 1, Bellator debuted featuring tournaments in the featherweight, lightweight, welterweight, and middleweight division. With events airing every Thursday, Bellator would show several bouts from each divisions tournament, with the winner advancing on to the next round. By doing this, it allows fans to see the fighters progress up through the ranks en route to becoming champion. Although many of the fighters in Bellator are relatively unknown, the promotion has laid claim to some amazing submissions and knockouts over the past two years.
(videos kinda cheesy but whatever)
LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP BOUT
Champion Eddie Alvarez vs Roger Huerta
This fight has fireworks written all over it. After a meteoric rise to super-stardom which landed Huerta a spot on the cover of ESPN Magazine, Huerta is at a stand still in his career. He has hinted that he wants to leave the world of mixed martial arts to pursue acting, which is what several other fighters have begun doing (Rampage, Couture). Having lost 3 of his past 4 bouts, this fight will likely decide whether it's time for Huerta to give up fighting. Huerta is at his best when he is throwing leather with his opponent. He has a great standup game and a hell of a chin. With some solid wrestling as well, Huerta is a tough match for anyone.
Eddie Alvarez is an extremely well rounded fighter who made a name for himself fighting all around the world, primarily in Japan with DREAM before coming to Bellator. Alvarez won most of his fights in Japan via T(KO), but after coming to Bellator, he finished his last six opponents, all by submission.
This fight is going to be CRAZY. Both of these guys love to stand in the pocket and exchange. They also are very comfortable on the ground and have all the skills to turn this into a great ground battle with technical transitions. The odds of that happening are very unlikely though, and expect these two to bang it out on the feet for three rounds or until one of them is out cold.
This is Huerta's first fight since his infamous street fight outside of a club in which he KO'd some guy who outweighed him by probably 100lbs. I could honestly care less who wins, I am just expecting absolute fireworks. If I HAD to bet, I'd put my money on Alvarez, but this fight should be a slobber knocker.
WELTERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP BOUT
Champion Lyman Good vs Ben Askren
I haven't seen either of these guys fight, so I don't have much input on how the fight will go, but they both have great credentials.
Lyman Good is 10-0 and seems to rely on an aggressive style to overwhelm opponents en route to TKO victories.
Askren is a former two time state wrestling champions out of the University of Missouri, and competed in the 2008 Olympics. It is rare than an athlete with credentials this high enters into the world of mixed martial arts, but here is an exception. Askren will obviously employ his world class wrestling game, most likely en route to a decision victory. What will be interesting to see is if he has made any drastic improvements towards his overall game. Sure we all know he has great wrestling, but how is his stand up, ground and pound, submissions, how is he off his back, etc. There are a lot of questions to be asked about this kid, (he's only 24), but until someone is able to stop his wrestling, we may not see many of those questions answered.
There will be other bouts on this card, although Bellator doesn't really disclose all their fight information. Either way, these two fights are worth watching, so check em out if you aren't busy watching Jersey Shore.
On to the big boys. UFC 121. I have been waiting for this event for faaaar too long. This is the first card featuring a title fight since UFC 118 back in August, and there won't be another card with a title fight on it until UFC 124 on December 11, so enjoy this one folks.
Last week I made a point out of the fact that while UFC 120 may have had a couple of potentially entertaining bouts, none of them held any significance in their respective divisions. That is not the case for UFC 121, in which every bout holds some relevance. HERE WE GO!!
Starting us off, innnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn the HEAVYWEIGHT DIVISION! (265lbs)
Brendan Schaub vs Gabriel Gonzaga
A finalist on the Ultimate Fighter season 10, as well as former member of the Buffalo Bills practice squad, Schaub has proven to have a good amount of power and explosiveness for a guy his size. After suffering a knockout loss to Roy Nelson on the finale of TUF, Schaub has rebounded to defeat Chase Gormley and Chris Tuchsherer in under a combined 2 minutes, both by TKO.
Gonzaga has developed into a gatekeeper in the suddenly deep heavyweight division. Since losing a HW title match to Randy Couture back in '07, Gonzaga has gone 3-3 in the division. His 3 victories have come in impressive fashion, but his three defeats have been as equally unimpressive. While Gonzaga is a very talented fighter, he has been unable to put it together against top level opposition (Werdum, Carwin, Dos Santos).
Both of these guys are big and don't mind exchanging on the feet. It will be interesting to see if Schaub's stand up has progressed enough since the Roy Nelson loss to be able to stand with Gonzaga. GG is very well versed in jiu jitsu as well, which may come into play in the event that Schaub gains an advantage in the striking department. A lot lies on the line in this fight for Schaub. If he wins, he'll earn himself a shot at a legit contender. If he loses, it's back to the slums. I got Gonzaga in this one.
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT (205lbs)
Tito Ortiz vs Matt Hamill
This fight has a lot going on behind the scenes. First off is that Ortiz was Hamill's coach on season 3 of the Ultimate Fighter back in 2006. Since then Hamill has accrued an 8-2 record in the UFC, although one of those losses was a very controversial split decision loss to Brit Michael Bisping. At the same time, one of Hamill's victories came due to disqualification against Jon Jones because Jones used "illegal" elbows while absolutely dominating Hamill. I don't really know how to put this without sounding like a dick, but it's a fact that should be known by casual fans, Matt Hamill is deaf. It is extremely impressive that even with a disability like that, Hamill is able to compete at such a high level.
Since TUF 3, Tito has gone 1-3-1. He defeated Ken Shamrock in October of 2006 before dropping his title fight rematch against Chuck Liddell in December of that year. After this, Tito became more of a business man, taking time off to focus on his career as CEO of Punishment Athletics, a MMA equipment and clothing line, as well as appearing on Celebrity Apprentice. Throw a couple of surgeries in there, and Tito only ended up fighting 3 times in 3 years.
Tito claims to be 100% healthy, but that can never be known for sure. Tito is getting old and he is getting rusty. He has barely been fighting and his head has clearly been more focused on his business ventures rather than his fighting career. Coming into this bout, Tito has been talking a lot of shit, including a couple of cheap shots at the fact that Hamill is deaf. While this is true, Hamill has great wrestling and is strong as a bull. Most of Tito's success in his early UFC days came from his ability to take people down and pound their faces in. Don't expect to see any of that in this fight as Hamill will be tough to get to the ground. Hamill does have very slow, albeit technical, striking. Don't be surprised if Tito is able to gain the upper hand in this area.
At the end of the day, Hamill has better overall wrestling than Tito. In the event that he gets in trouble on the feet, it wouldn't be surprising to see Hamill put Ortiz and his back and give him a taste of his own medicine. Expect Hamill to pull out a decision here over the aging and deteriorating Ortiz.
WELTERWEIGHT DIVISION (170lbs)
Diego Sanchez vs Paulo Thiago
The winner of the original season of the Ultimate Fighter, Diego Sanchez just can't seem to find a home for himself. After the show, Diego went 5-0 in the welterweight division before running into bigger, stronger wrestlers like Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch. Realizing he wasn't big enough to hang with these guys, Diego cut down to lightweight and fought at 155. After wins over Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida, Diego was dominated for almost 5 rounds by BJ Penn before the ref stopped the bout. Following this brutal beatdown, Diego returned to the welterweight division, only to come up short against British fighter John Hathaway.
Thiago has been a bit of a surprise story. A relatively unknown fighter, Thiago burst onto the scene with his knockout victory over Josh Koscheck to start of 2009. He has since gone 2-2, most recently losing to top contender Martin Kampmann.
Sanchez is a crazy dude who has devoted himself entirely to being a fighter. He has cardio for days and pushes a relentless pace with relentless ground and pound as well as solid submissions. He has developed somewhat of a stand up game, although he relies heavily on uppercuts, and tends to leave himself vulnerable to counter punches. The thing is, both of Sanchez's strengths play right into Thiago's strengths. Thiago is a very slick counter puncher, as he showed en route to knocking out Koscheck. He also has a great submission game, which he put on display against Mike Swick. The only times he loses is when he is up against a far superior striker (Kampmann) or an extremely dominant wrestler (Jon Fitch). While Diego does have good wrestling and jiu jitsu, he isn't as strong as the top tier guys in the welterweight division, and he will have trouble controlling Thiago.
Expect Diego to come out aggressive early, losing exchanges on the feet due to Thiago's slick counter punching. Once he's in trouble, Diego will resort to what he knows best and take the fight to the ground. Thiago, as cool as a mother fuckin cucumber, will lock on some sort of submission and put the "Nightmare" away for good. Sanchez may be on his way out of the UFC after three straight losses.
WELTERWEIGHT DIVISION (170lbs)
Jake Shields vs Martin Kampmann
For all of you who don't know who Jake Shields is, consider yourself lucky. An extremely accomplished wrestler/grappler/jiu jitsu fighter, Shields is the current Strikeforce Middleweight champion, and is one of the most boring guys out there. He has an absolutely smothering top game, which he uses to set up his slick submission game. Unfortunately, in the event he is unable to get a submission, he kind of just holds his opponent down. He doesn't do much damage via GnP, but instead just maintains dominant position and rides out a decision, as we saw against Henderson, Mayhem, Paul Daley, Okami, and others.
Martin Kampmann on the other hand is a very exciting fighter. Formerly a middleweight, the Danish fighter has found success fighting in the welterweight division, having gone 3-1 since dropping down, including a dominant victory over Paulo Thiago in his last bout. Kampmann relies on his slick Muay Thai striking to pick his opponents apart. He is also no slouch on the ground, with 6 of his 17 victories coming via submission.
Dana White has said that if Shields wins this fight, he will get the next crack at the WW belt following the December 11th matchup between Georges St Pierre and Josh Koscheck. It is very likely that Shields will drag Kampmann to the ground and keep him there for much of this match. Shields doesn't have the best stand up in the world and would be in tough shape against Kampmann's striking. Look for Shields to employ a game plan very similar to when he fought Paul Daley: takedown and lay on your opponent until either the round ends or the ref stands you back up.
The only thing I'm hoping for is that Kampmann is able to generate a few scrambles and transitions while on the ground. Every second that this fight is on the feet, Kampmann needs to try to make the best of his striking advantage. Expect Shields to walk away with this one on his way to being to next in line for the welterweight championship.
And the MAIN EVENT, IN THE HEAVYWEIGHT DIVISION (265lbs)
Champion Brock Lesnar vs Cain Velasquez
For the first time in a while, Brock Lesnar seemed mortal again. Following a stint in this hospital which saw Lesnar in very serious condition, the UFC champion was welcomed back by a beating at the hands of Shane Carwin through the first round of their July bout. Lesnar showed heart, adversity, and overall growth as a fighter in the second round of that bout as he was able to take Carwin down and beat him up a little bit before applying a fighter ending arm-triangle choke.
Velasquez is a great young talent with a strong wrestling background out of Arizona State University, boasting an 8-0 record, 6-0 since entering the UFC. He has shown great resilience and endurance in his victories over Cheick Kongo and Ben Rothwell, and put on his most impressive performance when he knocked out Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in February of this year. Unfortunately, he has been on the shelf since that fight, a time that spans over 8 months.
The biggest factor coming into this bout is the weight difference. Lesnar will most likely weigh in at the limit of 265, and probably be around 2702-275 come fight time. Velasquez on the other hand will most likely weigh in at 240-245. He is a much smaller HW who relies more on speed and endurance to outlast his opponents. A lot of people are giving Velasquez a big advantage on the feet due to his performance against Big Nog. But, don't forget that Cain got rocked by Cheick Kongo at the beginning of all three rounds of their fight before he was able to secure a takedown. Brock may not have the quickest hands out there, but the guys got power and he definitely has the ability to put some punches together.
The real question is whether Cain can stop Brock's takedowns. The fact that Randy Couture was able to fend of Lesnar gives a glimmer of hope that Velasquez can have similar success against the behemoth Brock. We have yet to see Brock fight past the 3rd round, so it's hard to gauge what state his cardio is at. Word from Velasquez camp is that he can go 10 rounds if need be, so we'll see if the fight makes it into the championship rounds (4+5) where cardio will truly make a difference.
If there's anyone in the UFC HW division who can give Lesnar trouble, it's Velasquez. He has the best wrestling in the division which should be beneficial in stuffing Brock's takedowns. Cain also has quick hands to put Brock in trouble on the feet. Both fighters have shown a great ability to recover after being rocked early on (Lesnar against Carwin; Velasquez against Kongo). This fight has all the makings to be a back and forth war between two of the very best heavyweights in the world right now.
So that's it. 2 nights, 3 championship bouts, a ton of great battles. Any time Brock fights there is always a sort of tension and anticipation in the air that really gets your blood pumpin. Against a guy like Velasquez, who comes into this bout carrying all of Mexico on his back, you know the atmosphere is going to be crazy. I'm looking forward to every fight on that card, and once again my picks are Gonzaga, Hamill, Thiago, Shields, anddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd I'll go with Velasquez just because I would love to see Lesnar get upset. Thanks for reading and enjoy the fights.
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